DO
YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR CPI IS?
The federal government announced in mid-January that consumer prices, as
measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose 3.3 percent in 2004—the
highest increase since 2000. But do you know what your personal
inflation rate was for 2004? Or why itÕs important to gauge how
much it rose? Or what you can do about it?
The CPI is a measure calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed
market basket of goods and services. The measure is taken monthly,
then annualized for the previous 12 months.
ThereÕs been much debate about how the CPI is calculated and whether it
accurately reflects true price changes. Regardless, itÕs a widely
used number. Social Security uses it to adjust benefit payments
to retirees, itÕs a bargaining chip in wage negotiations, and the
Federal Reserve uses it as one of many indicators in deciding whether
to raise or lower interest rates (lately, the Fed has been raising
interest rates in order to ward off more serious inflation).
But what does the national CPI say about your personal cost of living?
Probably not a lot.
Take, for example, three major expenses for many families: housing, medical
care, and college. Some critics say the national CPI underestimates
the impact of these expenses. But beyond that, your personal CPI
may differ dramatically from the national CPI depending on where
you live and how much these three expenses figure into your cost
of living.
According to the National Association of Realtors (March 2005), the national
median existing-home price rose 8.8 percent in 2004. And in nearly
half of 129 metropolitan areas surveyed, home prices rose in double-digit
figures, including a 47 percent increase in Las Vegas and better
than 30 percent increases in certain markets in California and Florida.
Yet in some regions, prices barely budged. Even within a specific market,
price increases can vary depending on the price range of the type
of house youÕre looking for.
While the national CPIÕs medical-care component rose only 4.2 percent in
2004, the reality for many people is that the cost of medical care
rose dramatically faster. This is especially true for older people
who typically spend much more on health care than the average person.
Families with children in college also will have a different—typically
higher—personal CPI than families who donÕt have children
in college. The Òeducation and communicationÓ component of the national
CPI showed a mere 1.5 percent increase. Yet the average increase
for the cost of tuition for in-state students at four-year public
colleges for the 2004–2005 school year rose 10.5 percent,
according to the College Board. That came on the heels of a 13 percent
rise the year before.
All of this illustrates that your personal consumer price index may be
quite different from the national CPI, and you need to plan your
finances accordingly. In some cases, personal CPIs may be lower
than the national average, but for others it will be higher. What
can you do with your own CPI?
Plan for it. When calculating your budget or perhaps future retirement
needs, be sure to take into account your inflation rate.
Trim high inflation areas. You may have the flexibility to trim expenses
in some areas. If necessary, you can send your child to a less expensive
college or you can buy a less expensive home. ItÕs more difficult
for some expenses such as medical care, though one can possibly
make savings there, too.
Review your investments. A diversified portfolio can go a long way toward
helping combat inflation though it cannot ensure a profit or protect
against a loss. Assuming you have ample investment time ahead—say
at least five to ten years—you should consider investments
that have a history of outpacing the rate of inflation, though past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Investment advice is provided through The Planners Network, Inc. (ÒTPNÓ)
and securities offered through National Planning Corporation (ÒNPCÓ),
Member FINRA/SIPC. Terry P. Welsh and Duncan Frazier are advisory
affiliates of TPN. Terry P. Welsh and Duncan Frazier are registered
representatives of NPC. Alaska Financial Associates, TPN and
NPC are separate and unrelated entities.
This article
was produced by the Consumer Affairs Dept. of The Financial Planning
Association and provided to you courtesy of Terry P. Welsh, CFP,
Ketchikan, Alaska. If you have any questions or concerns regarding
this, or any other financial topic, please call me at 1-907-225-0619,
or click on the "CONTACT US" button to arrange for a free initial
consultation.
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This document contains forward-looking statements, which
are based on our expectations and are subject to various business
risks and uncertainties that are beyond our control. Actual results
could differ materially from these forward-looking statements as
a result of such risks. There can be no assurances that the forward-looking
statements contained herein will in fact transpire or prove to be
accurate. Securities offered through NPC are not FDIC-insured deposits,
obligations of, or guaranteed by any bank or credit union, and are
subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of principal
amount invested. Selected indexes have been provided solely
for informational purposes and graphs alone should not be the basis
of investment decisions. Other indexes may exist which are
more applicable to the clientÕs portfolio. Past performance
does not guarantee future results, and there is no assurance that
a given trend will continue.
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