Broker Check
Living the Retirement 退休生活

Living the Retirement 退休生活

| June 01, 2023



退休生活: 一段讓人既期待又怕受傷害的歲月


平均壽命延長了,這代表什麼?是有更長歲月享受退休生活,還是坐吃山空老年癡呆的可能性更大了?

退休似乎跟數字息息相關:要存多少錢、身高體重BMI、血壓、膽固醇等等。不勝枚舉的文獻討論財務,健康,住所等退休生活品質重要指標。畢竟筆者執業資產管理20 餘年,本文還是談財務。

現年65 歲約有50%機率可活到85 歲(部分族群可達90%)1,2 – 這八千天也是我們終於可卸下責任為自己而活的年歲。問題是,我存夠了嗎?
答案因每人習慣的生活方式和在哪裡退休有很大差異。

據調查年收入10 萬到30 萬的人,即使退休後支出降低,在計入社安金後仍得從個人儲蓄提供約50%的開銷。這數字會因夫妻是否同時有各自的社安金而異。

換言之,年薪17.5 萬的人退休後要從儲蓄帳戶領8.75 萬/年。依4%法則,他/她得在退休前存218. 75 萬。如何達標?

據JPMAM3,4,5,預計65 歲退休尚未存錢,30 歲年收入10 萬, 每年要存13%的收入,而50 歲年收17.5 萬每年要存60% 。(假設退休前投資組合60/40、退休後40/60、通膨2.5%。夫妻在65/63 歲退休、退休後壽命35 年。)
承上例,若投資人養老金及終生年金收入有3.75 萬/年,則剩5 萬差額須由儲蓄帳戶補足,依4%法則退休前存125 萬即可。當然減少開銷,搬到開銷較低的地方退休也是辦法。

但退休規劃並非單純數學方程式。4%法則的爭議多半在未考慮現實:如投資報酬變化順序的風險、何時該從應稅/延稅/免稅賬戶中取錢、取多少錢、何時暫停特定賬戶的取款或換到哪個帳戶、何時轉換Roth IRA 或轉多少、投資組合的波動度等等。

假設李先生於1966 年65 歲退休時存有100 萬,隨即領4%/4 萬,每年依通膨增加領35 年。若年固定報酬8.1%,夠用到100 歲。但若將100 萬依40/60 分配投資於S&P 500 Total Return Index 和Bloomberg Capital U.S. Aggregate Index,這組合在1966-2000 年間平均年報酬9.5%,可是他卻在90歲之前就沒錢了—即使有較高的平均報酬 (9.5% v 8.1%) 3,4,5。為什麼?股市上下波動。尤其退休初期市場下跌迫使變賣更多股數,使在未來市場回升跟著水漲船高的股數相對變少。

1966-1970 年,CPI-U 從2.4%增加到6.3%;10 年國債利率從4.93% 調到7.35%4,5
當年通膨又升息的狀況讀者是否似曾相識?

屆臨或已退休人士,在投資組合中包含保護市場風險的方案非常重要,如:分散投資在不同資產類別、加入不同投資項目、購買保證終生收入或保護市場風險的年金。

退休財富管理很複雜,更包含決策分析,如從哪個帳戶取錢、取多少、何時取、及是否暫停特定帳戶提款。經驗豐富認證財務規劃師可成為你的得力助手,讓你把精力放在如何提升個人退休生活品質的議題上,如拓展社交支持網絡。

你退休之後想做什麼?含飴弄孫? 當高爾夫球好手?環遊世界? 有人一起吃飯看夕陽?與志趣相投的人一起做慈善?還是盯著電腦看自己存了多少錢或盤算著從哪個帳戶取錢來花?


This information is meant for illustrative and informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for an investment decision. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not assure profit or protect against loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk up and including total loss of principal. Indices cannot be directly invested into. An Annuity is a long-term financial product designed largely for asset accumulation and retirement needs, and generally contain fees and charges. Withdrawals and death benefits are subject to income tax, and additional penalties apply for early distributions. All guarantees of an Annuity are backed by the claims paying ability of the issuing insurer. 
Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research Inc., a broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Cambridge and American Financial Alliance, Inc. are not affiliated. Cambridge and American Financial Alliance, Inc. are not affiliated. Cambridge does not offer tax or legal advice.

References:
1. Social Security Administration, Period Life Table, 2019
2. http://www.longevityillustrator.org/
3. J.P. Morgan Asset Management analysis, 2021. Household income replacement rates are derived from an inflation-adjusted analysis of:
Consumer Expenditure Survey (BLS) data (2016-2019) for income and longitudinal Chase data (2013-2020) for spending. Chase data includes
internal select data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates.
4. JP. Morgan Asset Management; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of the Treasury.
5. JP. Morgan Guide to Retirement 2023: